Scotiabank expects the Bank of Canada to hold policy at this meeting, with forward guidance remaining cautious and the balance-sheet programme unchanged. The bank’s economics team still forecasts 75bp of tightening from Q4 into Q1, citing a growth rebound and re-emergent pre-war drivers of inflation; commodity prices have fallen from their peaks but remain above year-start levels. The statement may highlight a Q2 rebound while noting modest spare capacity, signal lower energy prices but use guar

Scotiabank expects the Bank of Canada to hold policy at this meeting, with forward guidance remaining cautious and the balance-sheet programme unchanged. The bank’s economics team still forecasts 75bp of tightening from Q4 into Q1, citing a growth rebound and re-emergent pre-war drivers of inflation; commodity prices have fallen from their peaks but remain above year-start levels. The statement may highlight a Q2 rebound while noting modest spare capacity, signal lower energy prices but use guarded language given a fragile US‑Iran MOU and gasoline/derivatives market imbalances, and is likely to reiterate readiness to respond to two‑way risks.