Scotiabank expects the Bank of Canada to hold policy at this meeting, with
forward guidance remaining cautious and the balance-sheet program unchanged.
The bank’s economics team still forecasts 75bp of tightening from Q4 into Q1,
citing a growth rebound and re-emergent pre-war drivers of inflation; commodity
prices have fallen from their peaks but remain above year-start levels. The
statement may highlight a Q2 rebound while noting modest spare capacity, signal
lower energy prices but use guarded language given a fragile US‑Iran MOU and
gasoline/derivatives market imbalances, and is likely to reiterate readiness to
respond to two‑way risks.
