July 15 — China’s CUSTOMS director Sun Meijun met with Cambodian Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Deng Dina. They discussed implementing China‑Cambodia leaders’ consensus and measures to safeguard and facilitate bilateral agri‑food trade, and signed a cooperation document. Vice director Hao Weiming attended.

7月14日，巴菲特指數（滬深300市值/GDP）反彈至90.94%，結束此前的二連跌，大週期看仍在十年波動區間上端附近震盪；股債性價比指標——滬深300指數股權風險溢價（ERP）回落至%，7月以來基本保持在5.2%附近波動，處於2024年10月以來波動區間下端，暗示目前股市相對國債收益優勢不明顯。 注：1、巴菲特指數是通過將股市總市值和GDP來比較，判斷目前股市是否高估，通常70-100%爲正常估值，低於該區間爲低估，高於該區間爲高估。 2、滬深300指數風險溢價（ERP）主要對比滬深300收益和國債收益率，統計近10年數據可以發現該指標和股指有明顯反向關係，每次股市都處於底部區域時，風險溢價均超過6%，也就是當ERP≥6%，股市有投資性價比，而當ERP≤4%時，則股市往往接近或處於階段性高點，投資性價比低甚至要小心回調風險。

CITIC Securities says June US CPI came in broadly below expectations: retail gasoline fell, core services were flat MoM, and second‑round inflation effects were weak. The firm assesses inflation lacks persistence; headline CPI YoY has passed this cycle’s peak, should drift down modestly in Q3 with a trough in September, rise to a secondary peak by year‑end and then fall sharply by March next year. CITIC still expects the Fed to keep policy rates unchanged through the year and sees room for derivatives‑implied hike probabilities to be revised lower. Market implications: US Treasuries are not attractive for allocation trades—short‑duration better than long‑duration; the dollar is unlikely to sustain a strong rally but retains support; US tech equities remain attractive.