July 15 — The Buffett indicator (CSI 300 INDEX market cap/GDP) edged down to 90.51%, remaining near the upper end of its 10-year range. The CSI 300 INDEX equity risk premium (ERP) eased to 5.17%, holding near 5.2% in July and at the lower bound of its post‑Oct 2024 range, implying a limited yield advantage of equities over Chinese government bonds. Reference thresholds: Buffett indicator 70–100% = normal valuation (below 70 = undervalued; above 100 = overvalued). ERP historically: ≥6% has coinci

July 15 — The Buffett indicator (CSI 300 INDEX market cap/GDP) edged down to 90.51%, remaining near the upper end of its 10-year range. The CSI 300 INDEX equity risk premium (ERP) eased to 5.17%, holding near 5.2% in July and at the lower bound of its post‑Oct 2024 range, implying a limited yield advantage of equities over Chinese government bonds. Reference thresholds: Buffett indicator 70–100% = normal valuation (below 70 = undervalued; above 100 = overvalued). ERP historically: ≥6% has coincided with market troughs and signals attractive equity value; ≤4% typically aligns with cyclical market highs and lower investment value.