July 15 — The Buffett indicator (CSI 300 INDEX market cap/GDP) edged down to
90.51%, remaining near the upper end of its 10-year range. The CSI 300 INDEX
equity risk premium (ERP) eased to 5.17%, holding near 5.2% in July and at the
lower bound of its post‑Oct 2024 range, implying a limited yield advantage of
equities over Chinese government bonds. Reference thresholds: Buffett indicator
70–100% = normal valuation (below 70 = undervalued; above 100 = overvalued). ERP
Historically: ≥6% has coincided with market troughs and attractive signals
equity value; ≤4% typically aligns with cyclical market highs and lower
investment value.
