Tianfeng Securities says H1 oil market saw geopolitically driven
volatility—Brent spiked near $120/bbl then fell—and while a recent Strait of
Hormuz flare-up is manageable, the market’s pricing logic is shifting from
extreme geopolitical risk to a three-way dynamic of geopolitical tail risk,
political intervention and fundamentals. The firm expects H2 to feature wide
swings with upside capped and downside supported, projecting a Brent central
range of $70–75/bbl.
