Export Development Canada (EDC) says global oil inventories have continued to decline, leaving the energy market more fragile. EDC forecasts average international oil prices of about $96/bbl this year and $84/bbl in 2027. EDC chief economist Stuart Bergman said distributed storage now functions as the market’s marginal producer. Pre-crisis stocks and strategic reserve releases have helped offset supply losses but have drawn inventories below seasonal normals. A permanent peace agreement and rest

Export Development Canada (EDC) says global oil inventories have continued to decline, leaving the energy market more fragile. EDC forecasts average international oil prices of about $96/bbl this year and $84/bbl in 2027. EDC chief economist Stuart Bergman said distributed storage now functions as the market’s marginal producer. Pre-crisis stocks and strategic reserve releases have helped offset supply losses but have drawn inventories below seasonal normals. A permanent peace agreement and restoration of Strait of Hormuz shipping to pre-crisis levels would ease tightness; however, Bergman said the market remains supply-tight and is highly vulnerable to further disruption and sharp price swings if geopolitical risk escalates.