Export Development Canada (EDC) says global oil inventories have continued to
decline, leaving the energy market more fragile. EDC forecasts average
international oil prices of about $96/bbl this year and $84/bbl in 2027. EDC
chief economist Stuart Bergman said distributed storage now functions as the
market’s marginal producer. Pre-crisis stocks and strategic reserve releases
have helped offset supply losses but have drawn inventories below seasonal
normals. A permanent peace agreement and restoration of Strait of Hormuz
shipping to pre-crisis levels would ease tightness; however, Bergman said the
market remains supply-tight and is highly vulnerable to further disruption and
sharp price swings if geopolitical risk escalates.
