Berenberg analyst Andrew Wishart says the Bank of England is likely to hold its key rate at 3.75% on Thursday but may warn that a sharp rise in energy prices or second-round inflation could force hikes. He adds such a warning does not imply a high probability of tightening, though the warning combined with higher oil could lift rate expectations and mortgage costs, easing inflation pressure. Wishart expects the BoE to resume cuts in December and to reduce the policy rate to 3.0% by mid-2027, cit

Berenberg analyst Andrew Wishart says the Bank of England is likely to hold its key rate at 3.75% on Thursday but may warn that a sharp rise in energy prices or second-round inflation could force hikes. He adds such a warning does not imply a high probability of tightening, though the warning combined with higher oil could lift rate expectations and mortgage costs, easing inflation pressure. Wishart expects the BoE to resume cuts in December and to reduce the policy rate to 3.0% by mid-2027, citing falling wage and services inflation; he also notes US president Trump has incentive to avoid oil-price rises ahead of the midterms.