Berenberg analyst Andrew Wishart says the Bank of England is likely to hold its
key rate at 3.75% on Thursday but may warn that a sharp rise in energy prices or
second-round inflation could force hikes. He adds such a warning does not imply
a high probability of tightening, though the warning combined with higher oil
could lift rate expectations and mortgage costs, easing inflation pressure.
Wishart expects the BoE to resume cuts in December and to reduce the policy rate
to 3.0% by mid-2027, citing falling wage and services inflation; he also notes
US president Trump has incentive to avoid oil-price rises ahead of the midterms.
