散戶新開倉中用於買入看漲期權的比例顯示，過去一個月，美國超大規模科技股的該比例升至約55%，較常態高約10個百分點，接近過去六年高位；圖中2020年復甦階段峯值約57%，2022年熊市低點則接近35%。這說明散戶正在以更高槓杆押注科技巨頭繼續上漲。 這意味着科技股的邊際支撐正從企業用現金回購，部分轉向散戶用槓桿期權追漲：上漲時彈性更強，但遇到財報證僞時，支撐也更容易快速撤離。 當前正值科技巨頭財報密集期，擁擠看漲倉位可能放大雙向波動：業績超預期時，做市商對衝可能形成追漲；業績不及預期或隱含波動率快速回落時，看漲期權時間價值縮水，對衝倉位解除也可能加速下跌。微軟財報前期權已計入約6.6%的雙向波動，明顯高於其近年平均水平。

Policy statement: market pricing largely expects a hold; an unexpected hike remains the primary risk. Watch for more hawkish phrasing (eg, adding language about acting if necessary) and for how the committee frames inflation vs recent disinflation and upside risks. Monitor whether the expected pair of hawkish votes materialize and whether the number of dissents exceeds two — a key signal for September. Press conference: whether the chair sticks to a terse communication style and downplays forward guidance, how recent disinflation is characterized and whether anti‑inflation priority is reaffirmed, and how officials judge Middle East spillovers for future inflation and the policy path. If a surprise hike occurs, note whether it is presented as a one‑off or the start of renewed tightening. Any hawkish shift in wording could reprice September hike odds and move the dollar, USTs and gold.

美聯儲主席沃什：（關於工作組）我挑選了15位領域專家來探討5個問題。