現貨黃金突破4050美元/盎司，日內漲0.16%。

Five former Trump administration officials say the White House has few good options after Iran demanded control of the Strait of Hormuz as a condition for ending hostilities. Senior U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Rubio, have warned against any deal that would allow Iran de facto control of the strait, saying it would complicate future U.S. sanctions enforcement by requiring waivers for transit payments and would weaken international pressure on Iran’s nuclear program; Rubio called it a dangerous precedent. Fractured communications among Iranian factions further complicate negotiations. The impasse arrives with U.S. midterms three months away and U.S. retail gasoline averaging $4.10/gal versus $3.85/gal a month ago. Continued concern over U.S. casualties, attacks on U.S. bases and ongoing Iranian missile threats to Gulf states risk further upward pressure on energy prices. There is no sign of an easy post-election exit. Danny Sitrenovitz, a non-resident Atlantic Council fellow, said any diplomatic settlement could require some Iranian control of the strait—politically unacceptable to many—while further military escalation would likely keep oil prices elevated without guaranteeing Iranian strategic change.

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