Commerzbank analysts Charlie Lay and Henry Hao say markets have repriced the
odds of an agreement on the Strait of Hormuz, supporting Brent and WTI. Iran
says the strait will remain closed until its conditions are met; mixed signals
suggest talks are ongoing but a near-term deal to restore normal shipping
appears unlikely. Security incidents remain elevated: a US Navy helicopter fired
on a vessel attempting to breach a US blockade of Iranian ports, and separate
merchant-vessel incidents were reported in the Gulf of Oman and off Yemen’s Red
Sea coast. European diesel has surged after refinery disruptions elsewhere,
tightening product markets. July’s energy-led drop helped ease headline
inflation, but the recent oil rebound raises upside risk to US inflation in
coming months.
