CITIC Securities says the US-Israel-Iran confrontation has been extended for more than five months. A reported Iran-Oman maritime transit agreement would not eliminate Strait transit risk; the deal functions primarily as an Iranian leverage tool and is unlikely to make meaningful progress because Iran’s hardline posture threatens Trump’s political legacy. Structural disputes over control of the strait make a long-term, stable management regime unlikely. Market-relevant watchpoints are whether th

CITIC Securities says the US-Israel-Iran confrontation has been extended for more than five months. A reported Iran-Oman maritime transit agreement would not eliminate Strait transit risk; the deal functions primarily as an Iranian leverage tool and is unlikely to make meaningful progress because Iran’s hardline posture threatens Trump’s political legacy. Structural disputes over control of the strait make a long-term, stable management regime unlikely. Market-relevant watchpoints are whether the US formally grants sanctions exemptions, unfreezes assets, or alters maritime blockade measures. In the near term, even if a management arrangement and blockade relief are reached, shipping volumes may not rapidly or fully return to pre-conflict levels, sustaining upward pressure on global inflation while leaving extreme disruption risk contained. Over the longer term, the contest around the Strait of Hormuz signals a declining US capacity and willingness to uphold the existing global order, which will accelerate Middle East geopolitical realignment and prompt global supply-chain reconfiguration.