CITIC Securities says the US-Israel-Iran confrontation has been extended for
more than five months. A reported Iran-Oman maritime transit agreement would not
eliminate Strait transit risk; the deal functions primarily as an Iranian
leverage tool and is unlikely to make meaningful progress because Iran’s
hardline posture threatens Trump’s political legacy. Structural disputes over
control of the strait makes a long-term, stable management regime unlikely.
Market-relevant watchpoints are whether the US formally grants sanctions
exemptions, unfreezes assets, or alters maritime blockade measures. In the near
term, even if a management arrangement and blockade relief are reached, shipping
volumes may not rapidly or fully return to pre-conflict levels, sustaining
upward pressure on global inflation while leaving extreme disruption risk
contained. Over the longer term, the contest around the Strait of Hormuz signals
a declining US capacity and willingness to uphold the existing global order,
which will accelerate Middle East geopolitical realignment and prompt global
supply-chain reconfiguration.
