India's July imports of oil, crude oil and refined petroleum products totaled $18.31 bln. India's gold imports in July were $4.16 bln.

7月下旬以來，市場對美聯儲9月加息的定價由接近一次完整加息降至約39%，但30年期美債收益率反而從5.08%升至5.24%。 分化來自兩套邏輯： 疲軟非農與溫和CPI降低了近期加息必要性；但長期美債交易的是未來數十年的通脹、財政供給和期限風險。 7月就業減少2.3萬人，核心CPI同比降至2.5%，解釋了短端政策預期回落。

United Overseas Bank (UOB) analyst Alvin Liew said after July US CPI that market odds of a September Fed hike have fallen and UOB’s base case is that the Fed will pause policy through all of 2026. UOB expects two 25bp cuts in 2027, likely at end-Q2 and end-Q4, gradually lowering the federal funds target to about 3.25% by end-2027, which it still views as its terminal rate estimate. While June and July CPI prints have balanced FOMC risks, geopolitical and energy uncertainty leave a slight upside risk to policy, so UOB remains vigilant to the possibility of tighter policy.