US Jun business inventories MoM, preliminary Aug University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and preliminary 1-year inflation expectations will be released in 10 minutes.

Oxford Economics says Japan’s planned food consumption tax cut will widen the fiscal deficit and lift JGB yields. Economist Norihiro Yamaguchi estimates the cut would reduce annual tax revenue by about ¥5 trillion and is unlikely to be fully offset by other measures. The firm assumes part of the shortfall will be covered by non-tax receipts and spending cuts, but that roughly half will be financed by debt, pushing the primary fiscal deficit to about 3% of GDP. It expects the deficit to begin improving from 2029 as debt/GDP rises and fiscal consolidation intensifies. Oxford Economics forecasts 10-year JGB yields will rise to around 3% by end-2026, from roughly 2.8% today. Market reaction so far has been limited, but the firm warns markets will increasingly price in the fiscal impact as policy details emerge.

On the 14th local time Yemen government forces said Houthi militants fired six ballistic missiles at Mokha port in southwest Yemen, striking civilian and state facilities and seeking to blockade and exacerbate civilian hardship. Yemen’s Health Ministry condemned the strikes, warned of serious health and humanitarian consequences, and urged the UN, international organizations and aid agencies to denounce the attacks, protect critical civilian infrastructure, ensure continued delivery of supplies and humanitarian aid, and scale up emergency health and nutrition assistance to the western coast and other affected areas.