US June business inventories unchanged MoM at 0.0% vs 0.1% expected; May revised up from 0.3% to 0.4%.

Axios reports that in a Oval Office meeting two weeks ago President Trump asked Prime Minister Netanyahu about his polling ahead of the Oct. 27 election; Netanyahu hesitated and an aide interjected that he was leading. Trump has so far declined to offer the expected public backing and could still change his mind. With 75 days to the vote, Netanyahu’s governing bloc polls at 49–53 seats versus his current 68 and below the 61 needed to form a government; the opposition polls at 67–70 seats. Former IDF chief Gadi Eizenkot tops Netanyahu in most recent polls.

根據Kpler發佈的最新航運監測數據，8月13日霍爾木茲海峽的確認船舶通行量回升至13艘，較前一日的9艘環比增加44%。在航線選擇上，有9艘船隻使用了伊朗單邊方案（Iranian Unilateral Scheme），沒有確認使用霍爾木茲分道通航制（TSS），另有4條路線暫未確定。相比之下，曼德海峽（Bab el Mandeb）的通行保持平穩，8月13日錄得29艘確認過境，環比微升4%，其中18艘進入紅海、11艘駛出，並記錄到2次暗艙航行（dark transits），當日未有新增的確認船舶襲擊報告。 儘管霍爾木茲海峽的單日通行量出現百分比上的顯著反彈，但從絕對值來看，13艘的過境規模仍處於歷史絕對低位區間（此前8月11日爲16艘，12日爲9艘）。這表明在潛在地緣衝突陰雲下，船東和運營商對該核心能源咽喉的通行評估依然極其謹慎。多數船舶選擇繞開常規的TSS分道通航制、轉而採用伊朗單邊方案，凸顯出該區域通行的合規與安全風險結構正在發生微妙變化。 單日通行量的波動並不能直接線性外推爲地緣封鎖風險的解除。由於絕對過境規模依然單薄，航運市場對霍爾木茲及紅海咽喉的供應鏈脆弱性定價並未根本改變，遠期物流成本與溢價仍將高度敏感於後續的安全事件擾動。