日本6月第三產業活動指數月率 -0.2%，前值1.10%。

A November New Zealand election may complicate RBNZ policy, but ANZ senior strategist David Croy says the central bank is still likely to raise rates in October. The RBNZ has signaled it wants to return policy to neutral; ANZ estimates the neutral rate at around 3% or slightly higher versus the current policy rate of 2.50%. Croy says with policy still accommodative and inflation above target, there is no clear reason to pause hikes — the burden is on the RBNZ to find a reason not to raise in October.

An index tracking emerging-market currencies rose as much as 0.2% to 1,906.98 on Monday, hitting a record high, while an EM equity index gained about 0.6%. Softer US economic data trimmed expectations for further Fed tightening and weakened the dollar, supporting EM assets. BNY Mellon senior Asia strategist Wee Khoon Chong said EM FX is being bolstered by dollar softness and a renewed risk-on mood, with strong foreign inflows into emerging markets—particularly Asia. SocGen emerging-Asia strategist Galvin Chia added that Asian currencies have benefited from last week’s weak US data and early-week dollar weakness; an absence of fresh geopolitical headlines and Brent trading under $90 are additional supports as the market exits the seasonal summer lull.