Bernstein says markets may have overread Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole
remarks as explicitly hawkish; Warsh stressed scaling back forward guidance,
which could make it harder to infer the Fed’s rate path from a single speech and
increase volatility in policy expectations. Warsh also flagged that more than
half of this year’s capex growth may be AI-related; near-term AI spending will
lift demand for capital, power and equipment, while longer-term productivity
gains could alter potential growth — the Fed must weigh both effects. Bernstein
did not rule out “currency-debasement” trades: it views US high debt, large
deficits and rising interest-service costs as structural risks, and says if the
US Treasury continues to intervene in long-end yields, scarce assets such as
gold and bitcoin could find support. (Source: JP Morgan report, Sept. 2)
