【期貨熱點追蹤】原油反彈+泰國暴雨支撐橡膠期貨大幅上漲，爲何專家卻說“供應沒大礙”？點擊瞭解。

Huatai Securities says persistent global liquidity uncertainty is likely to cap further valuation recovery for Hong Kong equities; recommends low-volatility, high-dividend names as core holdings (banks, utilities) and advises limiting exposure to sectors with high U.S. Treasury-yield beta such as metals. Earnings: aggregate Hong Kong-listed profit growth in 1H2026 rebounded sharply YoY but is highly divergent — high-dividend earnings turned positive mainly on resource-sector strength (sustainability uncertain), innovative drugs sustained strong growth, while internet profit declines widened. Based on earnings signals and sensitivity to rate expectations, Huatai favors innovative drug and CXO leaders with both earnings realization and market recognition. Staples such as food & beverage have moved into the latter stage of their fundamental trough but lack near-term catalysts; recommend patience.

高盛認爲，美國勞動力市場仍處於供需平衡狀態：由十項就業指標構成的閒置程度追蹤器，比上一輪經濟週期後期高約1個百分點；工資增速也低於其估算的、與2%通脹相匹配的水平。 最新官方數據提供了相似信號。美國8月失業率維持4.1%，平均時薪同比增長3.1%；儘管當月新增就業反彈至16.2萬人，過去12個月的月均增幅仍只有3.1萬人。 7月工業產能利用率爲76.3%，較1972—2025年長期均值低3.1個百分點，製造業利用率也低於長期均值。因此，當前尚未出現工資與產能共同緊張的全面過熱。