Analyst Robert Howard says August US CPI could decide whether the Fed tilts toward a September hike or holds at next week’s policy meeting, and will drive dollar moves. Reuters survey median forecasts headline CPI +0.4% MoM/+3.4% YoY and core CPI +0.2% MoM/+2.4% YoY. A hotter print would amplify hawkish calls for a September hike and likely lift the dollar; a cooler print would bolster dovish case for a sixth consecutive hold, weighing on the currency. Markets put the probability of a rate incre

Analyst Robert Howard says August US CPI could decide whether the Fed tilts toward a September hike or holds at next week’s policy meeting, and will drive dollar moves. Reuters survey median forecasts headline CPI +0.4% MoM/+3.4% YoY and core CPI +0.2% MoM/+2.4% YoY. A hotter print would amplify hawkish calls for a September hike and likely lift the dollar; a cooler print would bolster dovish case for a sixth consecutive hold, weighing on the currency. Markets put the probability of a rate increase this month at 57% after last Friday’s strong nonfarm payrolls pushed expectations hawkish; that shift came 24 hours after Waller’s dovish remarks that pressured the dollar and one week after Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole guidance had lifted it.