U.S. Treasury posts a new round of Iran-related sanctions on its website.

ECB is expected to raise the policy rate 25bp to 2.50% today and signal further tightening. Rising oil on escalating US-Iran tensions ahead of the meeting has reinforced hawkish expectations. Futures now price another 25bp move in October or December. EUR/USD hit 1.1654 on Wednesday and traded around 1.1630-1.1641 on Thursday.

Even partial Houthi disruption of Bab el-Mandeb has already had material market impact. Since late-2023 Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb—framed as support for Palestinians in Gaza—prompted major shipping and oil companies to bypass the Suez Canal and reroute around Africa. If Houthis further choke the strait, Iran could secure a strategic advantage versus the US in any wider conflict; Kpler shows June volumes transiting Bab el-Mandeb accounted for roughly 7% of global oil production.