摩根大通全球市場策略團隊發現，日本10年期國債收益率的衝擊正在更強地傳導至美國10年和30年期美債。摩根大通的美國10年/30年期曲線模型若只納入美國國內因素，會顯示當前曲線約陡峭10bp；加入日本30年期國債收益率後，模型擬合度由85.5%升至93.7%，標準誤差由7.6bp降至5.0bp，當前曲線也更接近合理定價。負利率和收益率曲線控制時期，經過匯率對衝的美債相對日債更具吸引力，日本資金持續流向海外，幫助壓低美國長端收益率；隨着日本長債收益率上升，這一力量正在反轉。

A U.S. official said maritime shipments of Iranian or suspected Iranian crude averaged about 110 million barrels over the past week, down from 180 million barrels before the war. Iranian unloadings have fallen from about 1.4 mln bpd pre-war to roughly 900k bpd. Over the past 30 days loadings averaged about 200k bpd, versus ~1.8 mln bpd in January–February.

Benedict Kukla, chief investment strategist at Indosuez Wealth Management, said in a report the ECB’s apparent sole focus on an energy supply shock is surprising. He said the bank has underweighted still-fragile demand and the lack of drivers for core inflation, and has not fully accounted for tightening in bond market rates. While the ECB retains credibility on inflation, Kukla warned there is a risk of over-tightening that could choke a nascent economic recovery.