US August unadjusted CPI YoY prior 3.4%; institutional median forecast 3.4% YoY. Broad clustering at 3.3–3.4%, with ING at the high end (3.5%). US August unadjusted core CPI YoY prior 2.5%; institutional median forecast 2.4% YoY. Forecasts cluster 2.3–2.5%: Citi, Jefferies, TD and U.S. Bank at 2.3%; Scotiabank and Sparta Capital at 2.5%; most major houses (including Barclays, BofA, Goldman, JPM, Morgan Stanley, UBS, HSBC) at 2.4%.

Most surveyed institutions expect US August seasonally adjusted core CPI m/m at +0.2% (prior 0.2%, consensus 0.2%). Respondents at +0.2% include Citi, Barclays, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, BofA, J.P. Morgan, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, Wells Fargo, HSBC, Nomura, ING, Societe Generale, Banco Santander, Standard Chartered, TD Securities, PNC and others. A smaller group — Scotiabank, DekaBank, Commonwealth Bank of Australia and DZ Bank — forecast +0.3% m/m.

A-shares closed lower after intraday losses of over 2% narrowed in the afternoon. Shanghai Composite -1.18%, Shenzhen Composite Index -1.08%, ChiNext -0.49%; Beijing Stock Exchange 50 -2.66%, STAR 50 Index -1.01%. Combined turnover on Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses rose to CNY 1.97 trillion, up CNY 324.8 billion from the prior session; more than 4,800 stocks fell. Electronic components rallied in the afternoon—Ultrasonic Electronics notched its third limit-up in five sessions; Chongda Technology, Junya Technology, Jialichuang and Bomin Electronics hit daily limits. Military-equipment names recovered with Guangdian and Inner Mongolia First Machine at limit-up. Diversified financials were weak: Cuiwei Shares and Xinli Financial hit limit-downs; Xiangyi Rongtong, Nanhua Futures and Haide were among top decliners. Industrial metals plunged, with Northern Copper and Jingyi shares at limit-down.