RUSSIAN CENBANK said it will make further decisions on the key rate based on the dynamics of inflation and inflation expectations and on analysis of risks from domestic and external developments.

摩根大通全球市場策略團隊發現，日本10年期國債收益率的衝擊正在更強地傳導至美國10年和30年期美債。摩根大通的美國10年/30年期曲線模型若只納入美國國內因素，會顯示當前曲線約陡峭10bp；加入日本30年期國債收益率後，模型擬合度由85.5%升至93.7%，標準誤差由7.6bp降至5.0bp，當前曲線也更接近合理定價。負利率和收益率曲線控制時期，經過匯率對衝的美債相對日債更具吸引力，日本資金持續流向海外，幫助壓低美國長端收益率；隨着日本長債收益率上升，這一力量正在反轉。

TD Securities says GDP running above potential will force the Bank of Japan to accelerate rate hikes to prevent overheating and will abandon gradual tightening. Inflationary pressure is picking up and the labour market should tighten further. TD projects roughly quarterly 25bp increases versus the BOJ’s typical semiannual rhythm, forecasting 25bp moves next week and in December, then 25bp hikes at the April, July and October 2027 meetings, taking the target rate to 2.25%. It warns fiscal policy is a key variable: expansionary fiscal measures could bring hikes forward or extend the tightening cycle into 2028.