高盛：我們對2026年底金價4900美元/盎司的公允價值預測，是基於各國央行需求持續強勁這一假設。

分析師Chris Anstey評論稱，這是美國中期選舉前倒數第二份CPI通脹報告。可以預期，特朗普政府和共和黨候選人將強調核心CPI同比漲幅。正如我們此前指出的，這一指標已降至2021年春季以來的最低水平。不過，月度數據並沒有釋放出通脹降溫的信號。對共和黨而言，風險在於，2.4%這一積極的數據可能會被美國民衆每次經過加油站時看到的汽油價格上漲所掩蓋。

Investors have largely priced in the Fed’s first rate increase in three years next week, Timiraos writes, but the key question is what comes after. He notes few Fed officials think a single 25bp hike will be sufficient to curb inflation; a move would more likely signal policy was previously too low. Since the 1990s the Fed has only once delivered a true one-off hike. A Fed official said in July he does not expect the central bank to be effective at “fine‑tuning” and sees little evidence yet that borrowing conditions are constraining activity. If that becomes the rationale for tightening, markets will press on how high rates must go; without clear guidance a lone hike could be interpreted as the start of a larger tightening cycle. Investors no longer view September as a likely one-off; market pricing now implies at least three cumulative hikes by June next year, up from two previously expected.