China International Capital Co says US Aug CPI SA MoM +0.4% (Jul +0.1%), YoY +3.4% (Jul +3.4%). Core CPI MoM +0.3% (Jul +0.2%), YoY +2.4% (Jul +2.5%), slightly above consensus. MoM rebound driven by higher energy, telecom price rises and persistent AI-related inflationary pressure. CICC judges the print has hit the Fed’s hike threshold and expects a 25bps increase at the Sept. 16 meeting. The Fed may lower its unemployment projection and raise inflation forecasts; the dot plot could lift 2027–28

China International Capital Co says US Aug CPI SA MoM +0.4% (Jul +0.1%), YoY +3.4% (Jul +3.4%). Core CPI MoM +0.3% (Jul +0.2%), YoY +2.4% (Jul +2.5%), slightly above consensus. MoM rebound driven by higher energy, telecom price rises and persistent AI-related inflationary pressure. CICC judges the print has hit the Fed’s hike threshold and expects a 25bps increase at the Sept. 16 meeting. The Fed may lower its unemployment projection and raise inflation forecasts; the dot plot could lift 2027–28 rate paths, signaling tighter policy for longer. A more hawkish risk: an additional hike later this year or next, which could prompt markets to reprice a longer tightening cycle.