China International Capital Co says US Aug CPI SA MoM +0.4% (Jul +0.1%), YoY
+3.4% (Jul +3.4%). Core CPI MoM +0.3% (Jul +0.2%), YoY +2.4% (Jul +2.5%),
slightly above consensus. MoM rebound driven by higher energy, telecom price
rises and persistent AI-related inflationary pressure. CICC judges the print has
hit the Fed’s hike threshold and expects a 25bps increase at the Sept. 16
meeting. The Fed may lower its unemployment projection and raise inflation
forecasts; the dot plot could lift 2027–28 rate paths, signaling tighter policy
for longer. A more hawkish risk: an additional hike later this year or next,
which could prompt markets to reprice a longer tightening cycle.
