Kobeissi report: as of Friday, Saudi Arabia’s east–west oil pipeline has been shut after recent attacks, putting about 4 mln b/d of Saudi exports at risk. The Bab el-Mandeb faces potential closure, threatening as much as 9 mln b/d. Strait of Hormuz transit capacity is currently only about 20% of pre-Iran-war levels, obstructing roughly 15 mln b/d. In aggregate ~30 mln b/d of crude flows are disrupted or at risk; even accounting for overlap this is large versus the ~100 mln b/d global market and

Kobeissi report: as of Friday, Saudi Arabia’s east–west oil pipeline has been shut after recent attacks, putting about 4 mln b/d of Saudi exports at risk. The Bab el-Mandeb faces potential closure, threatening as much as 9 mln b/d. Strait of Hormuz transit capacity is currently only about 20% of pre-Iran-war levels, obstructing roughly 15 mln b/d. In aggregate ~30 mln b/d of crude flows are disrupted or at risk; even accounting for overlap this is large versus the ~100 mln b/d global market and ranks among the most severe supply shocks in modern history.