Kobeissi report: As of Friday, Saudi Arabia’s east–west oil pipeline has been
shut after recent attacks, putting about 4 mln b/d of Saudi exports at risk. The
Bab el-Mandeb faces potential closure, threatening as much as 9 mln b/d. Strait
of Hormuz transit capacity is currently only about 20% of pre-Iran-war levels,
obstructing roughly 15 mln b/d. In aggregate ~30 mln b/d of crude flows are
disrupted or at risk; even accounting for overlap this is large versus the ~100
mln b/d global market and ranks among the most severe supply shocks in modern
history.
