Rate hikes have become the Federal Reserve’s baseline and may extend beyond a single move. As of Sep 15, Kalshi prices a 25bp Fed hike at 87% vs ~30% on Aug 27. Forward rates and Kalshi traders are also pricing a further hike in December. Tonight the Fed will release its rate statement and the SEP with the dot plot; markets will watch whether the dot plot converges with current pricing. A recent Fed speaker signaled a preference to say less rather than more, so the press conference may offer lim

Rate hikes have become the Federal Reserve’s baseline and may extend beyond a single move. As of Sep 15, Kalshi prices a 25bp Fed hike at 87% vs ~30% on Aug 27. Forward rates and Kalshi traders are also pricing a further hike in December. Tonight the Fed will release its rate statement and the SEP with the dot plot; markets will watch whether the dot plot converges with current pricing. A recent Fed speaker signaled a preference to say less rather than more, so the press conference may offer limited guidance; investors will lean on the dot plot and the number of dissenting votes to infer the policy path.