Rate hikes have become the Federal Reserve’s baseline and may extend beyond a
single move. As of Sep 15, Kalshi prices a 25bp Fed hike at 87% vs ~30% on Aug
27. Forward rates and Kalshi traders are also pricing a further hike in
December. Tonight the Fed will release its rate statement and the SEP with the
dot plot; markets will watch whether the dot plot converges with current
pricing. A recent Fed speaker signaled a preference to say less rather than
more, so the press conference may offer limited guidance; investors will lean on
the dot plot and the number of dissenting votes to infer the policy path.
