China Merchants Securities says the Fed’s expected 25bp hike and relatively hawkish dot plot (implying one more hike this year) are a realized negative shock, leaving few major macro variables to drive markets short term and prompting a return to sector-level pricing. China’s August data show marginal production recovery, weak aggregate demand and divergence between old and new growth drivers; aggregate weakness is largely priced while structural strength is concentrated in tech and exports. Con

China Merchants Securities says the Fed’s expected 25bp hike and relatively hawkish dot plot (implying one more hike this year) are a realized negative shock, leaving few major macro variables to drive markets short term and prompting a return to sector-level pricing. China’s August data show marginal production recovery, weak aggregate demand and divergence between old and new growth drivers; aggregate weakness is largely priced while structural strength is concentrated in tech and exports. Continued US–Iran tension alongside increased diplomacy has eased oil from recent highs, marginally reducing geopolitical risk. As macro pressure eases and prior crowding is digested, funds are rotating back to tech — TMT’s share of mainland turnover rose to 43% this week — and earnings-supported large-cap tech look set for catch-up gains; monitor AI compute chain, CPO industry chain, resource-price beneficiaries and export-linked names.