China Merchants Securities says the Fed’s expected 25bp hike and relatively
hawkish dot plot (implying one more hike this year) are a realized negative
shock, leaving few major macro variables to drive markets short term and
prompting a return to sector-level pricing. China’s August data show marginal
production recovery, weak aggregate demand and divergence between old and new
growth drivers; aggregate weakness is largely priced while structural strength
is concentrated in tech and exports. Continued US–Iran tension alongside
increased diplomacy has eased oil from recent highs, marginally reducing
geopolitical risk. As macro pressure eases and prior crowding is digested, funds
are rotating back to tech — TMT’s share of mainland turnover rose to 43% this
week — and earnings-supported large-cap tech look set for catch-up gains;
monitor AI compute chain, CPO industry chain, resource-price beneficiaries and
export-linked names.
