9月18日,巴菲特指數(滬深300市值/GDP)略微回升至92.11%,不過暫時未打破近兩個月震盪下行狀態。股債性價比指標——滬深300指數股權風險溢價(ERP)爲5.75%,較前一日刷新的逾13個月新高略有回落,依然處於偏高位置;從大週期來看該指標從過去四年波動區間下端逐步向中間區域靠近,暗示目前股市相對國債收益的吸引力有所上升,回到了中性偏高水平。 -------- 注:1、巴菲特指數是通過將股市總市值和GDP來比較,判斷目前股市是否高估,通常70-100%爲正常估值,低於該區間爲低估,高於該區間爲高估。 2、滬深300指數風險溢價(ERP)主要對比滬深300收益和國債收益率,統計近10年數據可以發現該指標和股指有明顯反向關係,每次股市都處於底部區域時,風險溢價均超過6%,也就是當ERP≥6%,股市有投資性價比,而當ERP≤4%時,則股市往往接近或處於階段性高點,投資性價比低甚至要小心回調風險。

2026-09-21

9月18日,巴菲特指數(滬深300市值/GDP)略微回升至92.11%,不過暫時未打破近兩個月震盪下行狀態。股債性價比指標——滬深300指數股權風險溢價(ERP)爲5.75%,較前一日刷新的逾13個月新高略有回落,依然處於偏高位置;從大週期來看該指標從過去四年波動區間下端逐步向中間區域靠近,暗示目前股市相對國債收益的吸引力有所上升,回到了中性偏高水平。 -------- 注:1、巴菲特指數是通過將股市總市值和GDP來比較,判斷目前股市是否高估,通常70-100%爲正常估值,低於該區間爲低估,高於該區間爲高估。 2、滬深300指數風險溢價(ERP)主要對比滬深300收益和國債收益率,統計近10年數據可以發現該指標和股指有明顯反向關係,每次股市都處於底部區域時,風險溢價均超過6%,也就是當ERP≥6%,股市有投資性價比,而當ERP≤4%時,則股市往往接近或處於階段性高點,投資性價比低甚至要小心回調風險。

其他消息
2026-09-21

The Japanese government will work with major machinery manufacturers to collect machine-learning data for physical AI applications such as autonomous robots, assigning unique IDs to factory equipment to enable cross-vendor data aggregation, Nikkei reports. Japan targets a domestic AI-robotics industry worth 20 trillion yen by 2040 (about $127 billion) and aims to secure over 30% of the global market, leveraging its manufacturing base to supply high-quality training data for domestic robot develo

2026-09-21

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