On September 18th, the Buffett Index (CSI 300 market capitalization/GDP) slightly rebounded to 92.11%, but has not yet broken its nearly two-month downward trend. The equity risk premium (ERP) of the CSI 300 Index, a stock-bond cost-effectiveness indicator, was 5.75%, slightly lower than the more than 13-month high refreshed the previous day, but still at a relatively high level. From a longer-term perspective, this indicator has gradually moved from the lower end of its four-year fluctuation range towards the middle, suggesting that the attractiveness of the stock market relative to government bond yields has increased, returning to a neutral-to-high level.
-------- Note: 1. The Buffett Index compares the total market capitalization of the stock market to GDP to determine whether the stock market is currently overvalued. Generally, 70-100% is considered a normal valuation; below this range is considered undervalued, and above is considered overvalued.
2. The risk premium (ERP) of the CSI 300 Index is mainly compared with the returns of the CSI 300 and the yield of government bonds. Statistics from the past 10 years show that this indicator has a clear inverse relationship with the stock index. Every time the stock market is in the bottom area, the risk premium exceeds 6%. That is, when ERP ≥ 6%, the stock market has investment value, while when ERP ≤ 4%, the stock market is often close to or at a stage high, the investment value is low, and there is even a risk of correction.
