JP Morgan forecasts the Bank of Thailand will deliver three 25bp hikes starting
in Q1 next year, lifting the policy rate from 1.00% to 1.75% by end-2027 — a
notably more hawkish stance than market consensus, which expects the rate to
remain at 1.00% through 2027. JP Morgan economist Charnon Boonnuch says the call
rests on stronger growth and a rebound in inflation. He notes Thailand’s policy
rate is currently among the world’s lowest, below Japan. JP Morgan nonetheless
expects the BoT to keep rates on hold for the remainder of 2026, citing growth
below potential and weak credit that keep near-term hikes difficult.
