All nine forecasters — Oxford Economics, Standard Chartered, Westpac, the Reuters survey, UBS, TD Securities, ANZ, ING and Commonwealth Bank — expect a 25bp Reserve Bank of Australia hike in September. Views on November diverge: UBS and ANZ expect another 25bp (UBS ties this to Q3 inflation surprising to the upside); Commonwealth Bank says September will pass unanimously with hawkish wording and that a Q3 trimmed‑mean inflation print ≥1% q/q could trigger a further hike; TD Securities and the Re

Japan's top FX official Mimura warned again on the weak yen, pushing the currency about 0.4% higher to 156.51 per dollar, its strongest since Sept. 18. Mimura said the prime minister, finance minister and US counterparts had given "very clear" signals on yen depreciation. Prime Minister Takaichi said US President Trump voiced concern about the weak yen at a recent meeting. Finance Minister Katayama spoke by phone with the US treasury secretary on Friday evening; both reiterated that the yen is undervalued and agreed to deepen US-Japan cooperation. Nomura FX strategist Yusuke Miyairi said the comments should raise market tension over possible Ministry of Finance intervention, and that Mimura—who had previously signalled silence to sustain concern over intervention risk—has begun verbal intervention since last Friday.

Ukraine's finance minister says the country can export only 40% of its grain.