All nine forecasters — Oxford Economics, Standard Chartered, Westpac, the
Reuters survey, UBS, TD Securities, ANZ, ING and Commonwealth Bank — expect a
25bp Reserve Bank of Australia hike in September. Views on November diverge: UBS
and ANZ expect another 25bp (UBS ties this to Q3 inflation surprising to the
upside); Commonwealth Bank says September will pass unanimously with hawkish
wording and that a Q3 trimmed‑mean inflation print ≥1% q/q could trigger a
further hike; TD Securities and the Reuters survey see the cycle nearing its end
and TD sees no urgent case for Nov/Dec moves; Westpac expects a split vote
reflecting differing views on supply capacity and labor‑market slack. Drivers
cited across forecasters are persistent inflation, a still‑tight labor market,
higher oil prices and AI‑related demand, plus resilient growth, reinforcing
upside policy risk.
