1、TS Lombard認爲，當前市場普遍將美債收益率上行歸因於美國政府債務高企、財政可持續性存疑，但這一判斷與基本面並不相符。 2、本輪收益率上行的實際驅動因素有三：能源價格居高不下、全球經濟展現超預期韌性、以及央行傾向於將限制性利率維持更長時間。這是典型的"經濟偏強、貨幣偏緊"組合，而非財政信用惡化的信號。一個關鍵佐證在於：若市場真正定價財政危機，長短端利差應顯著走闊，而現實中10年期與2年期利差反而持續收窄。 3、從歷史經驗看，真正引發財政危機的經濟體，均存在"借入自身無法發行貨幣"的結構性缺陷——歐債危機的根源在於缺乏統一的最後貸款人，英國1976年尋求國際救助則源於外債與匯率盯住的雙重約束。即便是2022年英國國債流動性衝擊，在央行出手干預後亦迅速平復。 4、對於掌握貨幣主權的經濟體而言，政府債務違約並非現實風險，真正需要警惕的尾部風險是通脹壓力。（TS Lombard 9月28日報告）

At the morning open, China’s main futures contracts were mostly lower. No.20 rubber fell over 3%; INE crude (SC), rapeseed meal, rubber, Shanghai silver and alumina dropped more than 2%; Shanghai gold was down about 2% and lithium carbonate slipped over 1%. On the upside, methanol rose nearly 4%, China–Europe container freight gained over 2%, pure benzene climbed more than 1%, and styrene (EB) and PET bottle flake advanced around 1%.

First Abu Dhabi Bank (ADIB) chief economist Simon Ballard said ongoing geopolitical tension leaves the Middle East conflict and its impact on energy markets, inf expectations and the global rates outlook as the main macro risks this week. He said markets will watch Fed officials' remarks for signals on the policy path; with this month's rate hike approved 12-0, any guidance on policy outlook will be particularly important for portfolio positioning.