EIA in its latest Short‑Term Energy Outlook said Middle East oil supply will
remain constrained into Q4 2026, though September production shut‑ins fell to
the lowest level since the conflict as increased escorting through the Strait of
Hormuz, rerouting and ship‑to‑ship transfers support an overall rebound in
Middle East output and exports. US diesel remains tight: East Coast distillate
stocks in September were 32% below the five‑year average and are expected to be
about 20% below the five‑year average this winter, only gradually approaching
the average in H2 next year. EIA projects the 2027 Henry Hub spot average at
$3.16/MMBtu, down 9% YoY. US households heating with natural gas and propane are
forecast to see lower winter heating spending, while heating‑oil households’
spending is expected to rise about 21%. The outlook incorporates the US Sept 29
announcement to swap 40 mln barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve but
excludes possible additional releases announced by the G7 on Oct 2.
