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EIA in its latest Short‑Term Energy Outlook said Middle East oil supply will remain constrained into Q4 2026, though September production shut‑ins fell to the lowest level since the conflict as increased escorting through the Strait of Hormuz, rerout

2026-10-07

EIA in its latest Short‑Term Energy Outlook said Middle East oil supply will remain constrained into Q4 2026, though September production shut‑ins fell to the lowest level since the conflict as increased escorting through the Strait of Hormuz, rerouting and ship‑to‑ship transfers support an overall rebound in Middle East output and exports. US diesel remains tight: East Coast distillate stocks in September were 32% below the five‑year average and are expected to be about 20% below the five‑year average this winter, only gradually approaching the average in H2 next year. EIA projects the 2027 Henry Hub spot average at $3.16/MMBtu, down 9% YoY. US households heating with natural gas and propane are forecast to see lower heating winter spending, while heating‑oil households’ spending is expected to rise about 21%. The outlook incorporates the US Sept 29 announcement to swap 40 mln barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve but excludes possible additional releases announced by the G7 on Oct 2.

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2026-10-06

According to EY's pre-budget fiscal outlook for the UK, the UK government's fiscal surplus has shrunk to £11.3 billion from £23.6 billion in March; this surplus could worsen to a £7 billion deficit if the Middle East conflict continues to restrict en

According to EY's pre-budget fiscal outlook for the UK, the UK government's fiscal surplus has shrunk to £11.3 billion from £23.6 billion in March; this surplus could worsen to a £7 billion deficit if the Middle East conflict continues to restrict energy supplies, push up inflation, and drag down economic growth. The £11.3 billion estimate is based on EY's baseline forecast for the UK economic outlook, which assumes the Strait of Hormuz will reopen around the end of the third quarter, but tanker traffic will remain sluggish. However, under EY's unfavorable scenario—that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until early or mid-next year, and UK inflation rises to 6% by the end of 2026—slower economic growth, rising unemployment, high borrowing costs, and a stock market decline would further turn the £11.3 billion surplus into a deficit of approximately £7 billion. Peter Arnold, chief UK economist at EY, said: “£11 billion is only about 1% of total tax revenue, which means there is almost no room for error in public finances. With such a small margin, even a relatively mild change in economic growth, inflation or UK government bond yields could change the fiscal situation by billions of pounds. If the Middle East conflict continues for a long time, it could completely wipe out the fiscal margin and put the government on a path of violating fiscal rules.”
2026-10-06

US goods and services trade deficit widened 13.7% MoM to $105.6bn in August, the largest monthly shortfall since early 2025, as imports hit a record on a surge in capital goods. Imports rose 4.3% MoM while exports climbed 1.4%. Inflation-adjusted goo

US goods and services trade deficit widened 13.7% MoM to $105.6bn in August, the largest monthly shortfall since early 2025, as imports hit a record on a surge in capital goods. Imports rose 4.3% MoM while exports climbed 1.4%. Inflation-adjusted goods deficit widened to $114.7bn, the biggest since March 2025. By category, nominal imports of industrial supplies, including crude and petroleum products, rose $9.1bn MoM while exports of the same category rose $6.3bn. Monthly volatility in trade since early 2025 reflects effects from US tariff policy, recent oil-price swings tied to the war, ongoing supply-chain strains and heavy AI-related investment driving equipment and technology imports.
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