REUTERS SURVEY: Fixed-income strategists expect US Treasury yields to ease in coming months despite the 10-year yield posting its largest quarterly rise since 1994. After nine consecutive months of being on the wrong side of yield moves, confidence in a near-term downtrend is waning. Some strategists say markets may have over-priced a series of Fed rate hikes and that actual tightening could be smaller than implied. At the same time, inflation concerns related to a possible US–Israel–Iran confli

REUTERS SURVEY: Fixed-income strategists expect US Treasury yields to ease in coming months despite the 10-year yield posting its largest quarterly rise since 1994. After nine consecutive months of being on the wrong side of yield moves, confidence in a near-term downtrend is waning. Some strategists say markets may have over-priced a series of Fed rate hikes and that actual tightening could be smaller than implied. At the same time, inflation concerns related to a possible US–Israel–Iran conflict and higher policy rates at major central banks have pushed several developed-market government borrowing costs to multi-decade highs. Heavy debt issuance by tech firms to fund AI infrastructure and increased US Treasury supply are additional upward pressures on yields. The median from about 60 strategists surveyed Oct. 5–7 puts the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.00% at year-end, 4.90% in six months and 4.75% in 12 months.