REUTERS SURVEY: Fixed-income strategists expect US Treasury yields to ease in
coming months despite the 10-year yield posting its largest quarterly rise since
1994. After nine consecutive months of being on the wrong side of yield moves,
confidence in a near-term downtrend is waning. Some strategists say markets may
have over-priced a series of Fed rate hikes and that actual tightening could be
smaller than implied. At the same time, inflation concerns related to a possible
US–Israel–Iran conflict and higher policy rates at major central banks have
pushed several developed-market government borrowing costs to multi-decade
highs. Heavy debt issuance by tech firms to fund AI infrastructure and increased
US Treasury supply are additional upward pressures on yields. The median from
about 60 strategists surveyed Oct. 5–7 puts the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.00%
at year-end, 4.90% in six months and 4.75% in 12 months.
