CITIC Securities says 3Q26 transport & logistics earnings divergence should
persist as a cycle paradigm shift boosts profit elasticity in oil tankers and
container lines. Oil shipping: expect a renewed upswing in crude tanker spot
rates after the National Day holiday; recommend names positioned to benefit and
monitor G7 strategic crude/diesel releases, elevated refining cracking spreads,
and seasonal plus cross-regional demand that should lift product tanker volumes.
Container shipping: shipowners’ margin recovery is the likely valuation
catalyst; recommended exposure to Red Sea re-rating plays and carriers with
stable cash flow and high dividend capacity. Express delivery: peak-season price
recovery underway, while low volume growth is accelerating competitive
differentiation. Air cargo: AI-related supply-chain shipments were a key driver
of 1H air freight growth and have raised the share of schedule-stable, high-tech
cargo; watch peak-season restocking and new capacity flowing through to margins
and firms with low expectations but attractive upside for cyclic resilience.
