Credit-default swaps on major tech names have surged since autumn 2025, with CDS costs for Microsoft, NVIDIA, Meta and Amazon widening sharply and some contracts roughly doubling. The move indicates growing investor skepticism that AI-driven investment will generate returns sufficient to justify large-scale borrowing for data centers and other capex. Banks have been hedging large tech loans by buying CDS to limit single-client exposure, and broad tech CDS indices have jumped—echoing patterns see

Credit-default swaps on major tech names have surged since autumn 2025, with CDS costs for Microsoft, NVIDIA, Meta and Amazon widening sharply and some contracts roughly doubling. The move indicates growing investor skepticism that AI-driven investment will generate returns sufficient to justify large-scale borrowing for data centers and other capex. Banks have been hedging large tech loans by buying CDS to limit single-client exposure, and broad tech CDS indices have jumped—echoing patterns seen before the 2008 financial crisis. If AI demand disappoints or project returns fall short, tech firms could face greater difficulty servicing heavy debt; CDS prices are increasingly pricing that uncertainty.