Credit-default swaps on major tech names have surged since autumn 2025, with CDS
costs for Microsoft, NVIDIA, Meta and Amazon widening sharply and some contracts
roughly doubling. The move indicates growing investor skepticism that AI-driven
investment will generate returns sufficient to justify large-scale borrowing for
data centers and other capex. Banks have been hedging large tech loans by buying
CDS to limit single-client exposure, and broad tech CDS indices have
jumped—echoing patterns seen before the 2008 financial crisis. If AI demand
disappoints or project returns fall short, tech firms could face greater
difficulty servicing heavy debt; CDS prices are increasingly pricing that
uncertainty.
