Goldman Sachs said on Monday that despite higher Norwegian output, northwest Europe gas inventories could remain low this winter unless Middle East LNG flows increase. Norwegian exports to northwest Europe have rebounded to 2022 highs, lifting regional storage fill to 63% from 62% a week earlier. Goldman expects Persian Gulf LNG exports to recover gradually over the winter, reaching about 65% of pre-war levels by January 2027. Markets are increasingly pricing uncertainty around Middle East suppl

Goldman Sachs said on Monday that despite higher Norwegian output, northwest Europe gas inventories could remain low this winter unless Middle East LNG flows increase. Norwegian exports to northwest Europe have rebounded to 2022 highs, lifting regional storage fill to 63% from 62% a week earlier. Goldman expects Persian Gulf LNG exports to recover gradually over the winter, reaching about 65% of pre-war levels by January 2027. Markets are increasingly pricing uncertainty around Middle East supply; Goldman said it will not assume that supply-risk premia in European gas prices will fade until there is clearer evidence LNG shipments are resuming via the Strait of Hormuz. It currently estimates that premia at €18/MWh.