Goldman Sachs said on Monday that despite higher Norwegian output, northwest
Europe gas inventories could remain low this winter unless Middle East LNG flows
increase. Norwegian exports to northwest Europe have rebounded to 2022 highs,
lifting regional storage fill to 63% from 62% a week earlier. Goldman expects
Persian Gulf LNG exports to recover gradually over the winter, reaching about
65% of pre-war levels by January 2027. Markets are increasingly pricing
uncertainty around Middle East supply; Goldman said it will not assume that
supply-risk premia in European gas prices will fade until there is clearer
evidence LNG shipments are resuming via the Strait of Hormuz. It currently
estimates that premia at €18/MWh.